NBA Finals preview: Thunder vs Pacers, what to know, matchups to watch and more...

The Oklahoma City Thunder spent Christmas night in Indianapolis feeling a peculiar mix of gratitude and pique. While they had enjoyed the festive morning with their families at home before a relatively short flight, an underlying annoyance lingered: ten other NBA teams were playing on the league's most celebrated day, yet the Thunder, with their league-best 57 wins from the previous season and MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, were relegated to spectators. At that point, OKC boasted a 23-5 record and an eight-game winning streak, making their exclusion from the December 25 schedule seem, in hindsight, quite illogical.

Their opponents on December 26 for a routine non-national television game were the Indiana Pacers. Four months prior, the Pacers had similarly expressed exasperation at being omitted from the Christmas Day slate, despite reaching the Eastern Conference finals the previous season. This marked their 20th consecutive year without a Christmas fixture.

Looking back, this unassuming regular-season encounter between the two eventual NBA finalists on what should have been a league showcase day now appears profoundly ironic. Both franchises, embodying the spirit of small-market underdogs, were quietly carving their paths to prominence, hidden in plain sight.

Bu gönderiyi Instagram'da gör

Indiana Pacers (@pacers)'in paylaştığı bir gönderi

The contest itself proved to be a thrilling preview of what the NBA Finals promises. The Pacers, still finding their rhythm amidst early-season injuries and inconsistencies, were a .500 team at the time. Yet, they controlled much of the December 26 game, leading by as many as 16 points, even with their star guard Tyrese Haliburton limited to just four points.

However, the Thunder, known for their precise and relentless play, showcased their defensive discipline by committing only three turnovers, effectively dismantling Indiana's typical strategy of capitalizing on opponent mistakes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander delivered a career-high 45 points, with 16 coming in the crucial fourth quarter. His cold-blooded three-pointer in the final minute, contested by Bennedict Mathurin, sealed a 120-114 victory for OKC.

This captivating game, had it been granted a national spotlight, would have been a perfect showcase. Instead, it serves as an intriguing footnote to the discovery that the Pacers and Thunder are the first teams since 2007 to reach the NBA Finals without playing on Christmas Day in the same season. While the league’s 2024 Christmas schedule undoubtedly delivered exciting games and high ratings, overlooking these two consistently top-tier teams was, perhaps, a missed opportunity. Their similar playoff journeys over the last six weeks have definitively proven their elite status, driven by brilliant point guards, exceptional depth, stifling defenses, lethal transition play, astute coaching, dynamic stars, and consistent resilience.

Bu gönderiyi Instagram'da gör

Oklahoma City Thunder (@okcthunder)'in paylaştığı bir gönderi

Ignore their small-market labels, predict low ratings, or dismiss their cities' nightlife if you wish. Underestimating the Thunder and Pacers has consistently proven to be a losing strategy. The most compelling matchup of the season was there all along, even if it was initially obscured.

Road to the Finals: Oklahoma City Thunder

After one of the most dominant regular seasons in NBA history, where they recorded 68 wins, the Thunder faced their toughest test against a battle-hardened championship team in the second round of the playoffs. Outside of that series, they swiftly navigated the Western Conference bracket. Following a clean sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, Oklahoma City squandered a double-digit lead in the opener against three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, eventually finding themselves trailing 2-1 after three games. The Thunder embraced this adversity as a chance for growth.

"I knew that they were going to bring greatness out of us," said Thunder reserve Alex Caruso, the only player on the roster with a championship ring, before Game 4 in Denver. "Denver is a smart team, an experienced team. I know that this is the challenge that's going to push us to be great."

Fueled by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder secured clutch victories in the subsequent two games, silencing doubts about their ability to perform under pressure after winning 54 regular-season games by double-digit margins. Oklahoma City then decisively defeated the Nuggets in Game 7, with Gilgeous-Alexander contributing 35 points in a dominant 32-point win.

Oklahoma City required only five games to eliminate the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference finals, sealing the series with a commanding 30-point victory. This marked the Thunder's fourth win by a margin of 30 points or more during their playoff run—the most by any team in a single postseason, according to ESPN Research.

While Gilgeous-Alexander is brilliant offensively, averaging 29.8 points and 6.9 assists this postseason, it is defense that underpins the Thunder's dominance. Oklahoma City boasted the top-ranked defense in the regular season and further intensified their defensive effort in the playoffs, lowering their defensive efficiency to 104.7 points allowed per 100 possessions. During the postseason, the Thunder have forced 18.0 turnovers and converted them into 23.8 points per game, both increases over their league-leading regular-season figures (17.0, 21.8).

Five Oklahoma City players—Caruso, Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Luguentz Dort—have averaged more than one steal per game in the playoffs, while Chet Holmgren has contributed 2.0 blocks per contest. The Thunder's defense is a remarkable synthesis of relentless pressure, swarming rotations, elite playmaking, and collective cohesion.

"Fifteen puppets on one string," Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards famously remarked, describing Oklahoma City's defensive synergy.

Road to the Finals: Indiana Pacers

It might have been easy to overlook the Pacers at the beginning of the postseason, but after an exhilarating journey as underdogs through the Eastern Conference bracket, they can no longer be underestimated.

The Pacers secured 50 wins and entered the playoffs as a No. 4 seed, but their slow start to the season initially concealed their true contender qualities. While their five-game dispatch of new rivals, the Milwaukee Bucks, in the first round was impressive, it was their performance against a 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers team that truly announced the Pacers' transformation from a promising young squad to a conference elite.

"They're up here, guys," Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson declared, raising his hand toward his head for emphasis, after his top-seeded team was eliminated from the conference semifinals. "I know from the data, I know from watching film, they're up here and they can sustain it. I give them so much credit for being able to sustain that type of intensity for so long."

This set up a thrilling Eastern Conference finals clash with Indiana's greatest rival, the New York Knicks—the same franchise the Pacers defeated in their only other trip to the Finals in 2000. Indiana's high-octane offense overwhelmed the Knicks in six games, spearheaded by Tyrese Haliburton, who has enjoyed a star-making playoff run averaging 18.8 points, 9.8 assists, and 5.7 rebounds in the postseason, along with delivering several crucial clutch shots. Pascal Siakam, named Conference Finals MVP after recording three 30-point games in the series, and coach Rick Carlisle, a 2011 champion with the Dallas Mavericks whom Haliburton has hailed as a "savant," were also pivotal.

The Pacers have showcased the second-best offensive efficiency in the playoffs, scoring 117.7 points per 100 possessions. They possess a deep bench and maintain a high pace for the entire 48 minutes, which has enabled them to orchestrate three of the most improbable playoff comebacks in recent history during this run. They overcame a seven-point deficit in the final 40 seconds of Game 5 against the Bucks in the first round. They trailed by seven points again in the final 50 seconds of Game 2 against the Cavaliers in the second round. And in Game 1 against the Knicks, they were down 14 with just 2:51 remaining. Indiana remarkably came back to win each of these games.

"It's how we orchestrated this team," stated Pacers center Myles Turner, the longest-tenured player on the squad. "It's not the flashiest, sexiest team. We just get results."

Last time they met

The Thunder, who established an NBA record with a 29-1 interconference record against the Eastern Conference this season, secured victories in both head-to-head encounters against the Pacers. However, their December 26 triumph in Indianapolis required a significant fourth-quarter comeback. Trailing by four points with 3:42 left after a 7-0 Pacers surge, Oklahoma City responded with eight consecutive points to seize control, with Jalen Williams contributing half of that crucial run. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the undeniable standout, delivering 45 points on 15-of-22 shooting, including four successful three-pointers from five attempts, and a perfect 11-for-11 night at the free-throw line. OKC ultimately prevailed 120-114.

The subsequent meeting on March 29, hosted by the Thunder in Oklahoma City, offered far less drama. Oklahoma City established a commanding 22-point lead after three quarters. The Thunder displayed impressive long-range shooting, converting 17 three-pointers, including six from Luguentz Dort and five off the bench from Isaiah Joe, en route to a comfortable win.

How many times will this Oklahoma City core get to this stage?

The NBA is currently experiencing a peak in parity, with six distinct title winners over the past six seasons, and a seventh champion poised to be crowned this year. Despite this, the Oklahoma City Thunder exhibit clear dynasty potential. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this squad stands as the second-youngest team, with an average age of 25.6 years, to advance to the NBA Finals, trailing only the 1976-77 championship-winning Portland Trail Blazers. The Thunder's deep roster is strategically constructed around key young talents: a 26-year-old MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a 24-year-old All-NBA selection in Jalen Williams, and a 23-year-old potential future Defensive Player of the Year in Chet Holmgren.

Furthermore, General Manager Sam Presti has meticulously accumulated an impressive arsenal of 13 first-round draft picks spanning the next seven drafts, providing immense flexibility for future roster building. While Oklahoma City's previous Finals team, which featured future MVPs Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden, serves as a cautionary tale that future success is never guaranteed in the NBA, the current Thunder roster enters the Finals as a heavy favorite. It is easy to envision this talented and youthful core becoming regular contenders in June for years to come.

Can Indiana win the strength battle?

The Thunder's formidable defense will undoubtedly present the toughest challenge for the Pacers to overcome. Oklahoma City fields a robust, swarming, and remarkably agile defensive unit, possessing the youth and speed necessary to match, and potentially even excel in, Indiana's high-tempo style of play. Throughout their playoff run, the Pacers have skillfully leveraged their speed to seemingly catch each opponent off guard, forcing them onto their heels and compelling them into uncharacteristic playing styles and errors.

Indiana will enter this series with a valuable edge in playoff experience, and Coach Rick Carlisle will once again endeavor to dictate the terms of the series, a strategy he has successfully employed in each of the preceding three rounds. However, the perceived disparity between the top teams in the Western and Eastern Conferences has appeared significant for much of the season, which is why Oklahoma City enters the Finals as a heavy favorite. The Pacers have consistently thrived in their underdog role throughout the entire postseason. The crucial question remains: can they find a way to orchestrate one more colossal upset?

Matchups to watch: Tyrese Haliburton vs Luguentz Dort

This series features a captivating individual duel: the All-NBA guard against the first-team All-Defense stopper. Tyrese Haliburton is unequivocally the engine that drives the Pacers' offense. However, his effectiveness has been significantly curtailed when facing Luguentz Dort. Over the past two seasons, Haliburton has averaged a mere 12 points per game against the Thunder, which stands as his lowest scoring average against any opponent. Furthermore, data from GeniusIQ tracking reveals that he has attempted shots at a lower rate when guarded by Dort compared to any other defender.

Should the Thunder manage to consistently stifle Haliburton's offensive production, as they have demonstrated in their regular-season encounters, thereby disrupting the intricate flow of Indiana's offense, this series is unlikely to be a prolonged affair. Conversely, if Haliburton can effectively overcome Dort's famously physical and relentless defense, and successfully keep the Pacers' high-octane offense humming, then Indiana possesses a genuine opportunity to shock the world and pull off an upset against the favored champions.

Pascal Siakam vs Jalen Williams

This matchup features two versatile forwards who are crucial to their team's success on both ends of the floor. Siakam, the Eastern Conference Finals MVP, brings championship experience and a dynamic offensive game. He's a strong scorer in the paint, can hit timely threes, and is an active defender. His ability to create his own shot and provide a veteran presence is vital for the young Pacers.

Jalen Williams has emerged as the Thunder's clear second option and a rising two-way star. He's an incredibly efficient scorer, can handle the ball, and is a strong defender with good size and athleticism. He'll likely be tasked with guarding Siakam for stretches. This will be a battle of versatility and impact. Siakam's experience and strength against Williams' youth, athleticism, and burgeoning offensive game.

How the Thunder can win?

The Thunder can secure the Larry O'Brien Trophy by consistently executing the strategies that have defined their dominant regular season and impressive playoff run. A Finals victory would culminate a truly historic season for Oklahoma City, a team that posted the best point differential ever in the regular season (plus-12.9 PPG) and boasts the highest point differential for any team entering the Finals (plus-10.8) since the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors in 2017.

More specifically, the Thunder's path to victory in this series hinges on their continued control of the turnover differential, a metric that has proven pivotal throughout their playoff journey. Oklahoma City has demonstrated an exceptional ability to simultaneously force significantly more turnovers than any other team in the playoffs (18.0 per game) while committing fewer offensive turnovers than any team that advanced beyond the first round (11.6). This remarkable margin of 6.4 per game in their favor would represent the highest for any team that has played multiple series since the league began meticulously tracking team turnovers in the 1973-74 season.

How the Pacers can win?

Indiana's challenging yet achievable path to clinching the Larry O'Brien Trophy involves three critical components. Firstly, the Pacers must absolutely avoid losing the turnover battle by the drastic margins that have plagued nearly every other opponent facing the Thunder. There are encouraging signs here: Tyrese Haliburton is recognized as one of the league's lowest-turnover guards, and Indiana ranked third in both the regular season and the postseason for the lowest turnover rate. Protecting the ball will be paramount to limiting Oklahoma City's demoralizing and game-breaking transition sequences.

Secondly, the Pacers must emphatically win the 3-point shooting battle by a significant margin. Here too, there is reason for optimism, as Indiana leads all playoff teams with an impressive 40.1% mark from beyond the arc. In contrast, Oklahoma City's collective shooters have notably struggled, converting only 33.6% from three-point range this postseason.

And finally, the Pacers must prove their mettle in close games. The Thunder are sufficiently dominant that it is reasonable to anticipate they will secure at least one or two blowout victories in the Finals, having won every series so far by a margin of 30 points or more in at least one game. However, if Indiana can consistently triumph in the tightly contested, non-blowout matchups, then an upset becomes a distinct possibility. The Pacers have demonstrated their clutch prowess throughout these playoffs, boasting a stellar 7-1 record in games decided in the final minutes.